"America's Longest War?" (a note on the Holbrooke quote above)

Richard Holbrooke is the first person I ever heard use the term "AfPak." Holbrooke is now President Obama's special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan. At the time, though, Holbrooke was chairman of the Asia Society. He used "AfPak" in a 5/7/08 speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. CSIS is in D.C. I'm not. I heard the speech via the CSIS podcast.

Holbrooke called his speech "Afghanistan: America’s Longest War?"

I have not found a transcript. So the quotes that follow are based on my own (potentially) imperfect transcription. I've checked and double-checked, though.

In the speech, Holbrooke explained his title:

"I would submit to you that the war in Afghanistan, now in its seventh year, will before it's over be the longest war in American history. The longest war currently is, of course, Vietnam. Measured at its maximum, 1961 to 1975: 14 years. I see no likelihood that we can achieve our objectives in a timeframe that would mean that we would be out of Afghanistan in that timeframe. That's a daunting statement with massive political implications and I don't say it with any great joy. But the alternative would be a strategic setback to the United States and the return of the Taliban and al Qaeda to Afghanistan and I think that's an unacceptable outcome to the United States. ... I do not believe it's correct to say we're losing in Afghanistan. But it is absolutely correct to say we're not winning. And in the long run, in this sort of war, if the guerillas don't lose, they end up winning."

Here, from the same speech with a bit more context, is the Holbrooke quote I feature at the very top of AfPak Ignoramus:

"It's no secret to those of you in this room that the situation in Afghanistan is critically important to the United States. Just as important as Iraq. But I don't think it's widely understood exactly what the nature of it is or its connection to the situation in Pakistan. So let me propose to you that there is a theater of operations which I will call for purposes of this discussion AfPak -- Afghanistan, Pakistan. In the western half of AfPak, NATO forces operate and that is the part that gets the attention. In the eastern part across the border, the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and other areas along that long and complicated border, NATO forces are not able to function, except for the occasional Predator that accidentally strays across the border and accidentally kills some Taliban, we hope, and not some innocent people. But quite seriously, this is an extraordinary theater of operations because the NATO forces can only fight on one side of it and success is not possible unless there's success on both sides of it.

"This (Bush) administration has utterly failed to conceive of it as a single strategic theater. It is part of a massive policy breakdown in this area, which I think is going to require urgent repair by whoever the next president of the United States is. I see no likelihood that this administration has either the time or the understanding of the area to fix it. Even if they did understand it – and they certainly have gotten better recently – there's no time left and there's no time to forge a consensus."

Now that Holbrooke is back in government and advising the president on Afghanistan and Pakistan, it seems worthwhile to remember his May 2008 analysis. It gives us deeper context for understanding the news of the day. Today, in particular. This morning President Obama announced more troops and set a "clear and focused goal to disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and to prevent their return to either country in the future.”

The NY Times has posted a copy of the today's "White Paper of the Interagency Policy Group’s Report on U.S. Policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan."